Global Trends 2015
By the National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2015 should be seen as a work-in-progress, a flexible framework for thinking about the future. The judgments flow from our best efforts to produce a comprehensive picture of the world in 2015. This analysis will help leaders better cope with, for example, the uncertainties involved with the decline of Russia, the emergence of China, or the political, economic and societal dynamics in the Middle East. Originally issued by the Central Intelligence Agency in July 2001, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future identifies the factors that will be central in shaping the global demographic landscape in 2015 and beyond. Key findings include: Declining birthrates and a steady increase of an aging population will combine to increase health care and pension costs. Expansion of the "youth bulge" in several developing countries will increase the potential for economic growth and political stability. Food, energy and water scarcities will pose significant challenges to the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and Northern China. Effective governance will increasingly be determined by the ability to form partnerships to increase information flows, create new technologies and manage population migration. This research was originally approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the authority of the Director of Central Intelligence and prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council.